tirsdag den 10. august 2010

En lempelse af amerikansk pengepolitik kan ikke redde en forfejlet økonomisk politik i USA

Aviserne er fulde af spekulation om en mulig lempelse af den amerikanske pengepolitik i dag, når forbundsbanken Open Market Committee holder møde senere i dag, se for eksempel NYT (9/8) eller FAZ (10/8). Der er ikke tegn på, at der kommer mere gang i økonomien. En lempelse kunne eksempelvis ske gennem yderligere opkøb af statsobligationer, hvilket vil bringe mere likviditet ind i økonomien. Men spørgsmålet er om der er brug for yderligere likviditet, pengepolitik har været meget lempelig i 2 år, som det fremgår af vedstående figur.

WSJ (9/8) har en anden udlægning i en i dagens leder. Avisen mener ikke, at pengepolitik kan redde en forfejlet finanspolitik og erhvervspolitik, som Kongressen og præsident Barack Obama er ansvarlig for.

"Above all, the easy money solution misdiagnoses the real U.S. problem. The economy doesn't suffer from a shortage of money. It is suffering from a shortage of confidence and animal spirits. Banks have plenty of reserves to lend, while U.S. corporations have repaired their balance sheets enough that they have something close to $2 trillion in cash on hand. Even the U.S. consumer is saving more. The problem is that Americans won't invest more or take more risks amid Washington policies that are hostile to private markets and have created only greater uncertainty and higher costs for doing business.
Regular readers of these columns know the litany: Taxes on capital and incomes are set to rise sharply next January, and again in 2013 to finance ObamaCare; record levels of government spending have created the expectation of still higher taxes and borrowing in the future; the health-care and financial industries are being turned upside down by new rules to be written in the coming months; politically directed credit and subsidies have distorted the energy, automobile and other markets, favoring some companies and business models over others; antitrust policy is punishing successful companies like Intel; and now the FCC is proposing to rewrite the rules for Internet and telecom investment.
Amid such a political assault, it is a tribute to American business that it is willing to take any risks at all.
This is the real root of our current economic malaise—the conceit of Congress and the White House that more government spending, taxing and rule-making can force-feed economic expansion. Now that this great government experiment is so obviously failing, the politicians and the Wall Street Keynesians who cheered the stimulus are asking the Federal Reserve to save the day. Mr. Bernanke should tell them politely but firmly that his job is to maintain a stable price level, not to turn bad policy into wine".

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