ECB arbejdspapir: EU har brug for stærkere mekanismer til at sikre sund og bæredygtig finanspolitik

Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) har udsendt et arbejdspapir om krisen og de offentlige finanser. Krisen har som bekendt medført ekstraordinære store underskud på de offentlige budgetter som følge af faldende skatteindtægter, stigende udgifter til arbejdsløse, stimuleringspakker samt forskellige hjælpe- og redningspakker til primært den finansielle sektor. 13 ud af 16 Euro-lande havde ved udgangen af 2009 så store underskud, at det aktiviteret en særlig produce i Vækst- og Stabilitetspagten.

Der er risiko for et negativt loop med stigende renter som følge af højere offentlig gældsætning i Euro-landene og lavere vækst. Derfor er det vigtigt at nedbringe budgetunderskuddene og gældssætningen. Papiret konkluderer blandt andet (mine fremhævelser):

"Once the recovery is evident, governments need to start exiting from the fiscal stimulus and shift to substantial fiscal consolidation in order to return to sound and sustainable fiscal positions. Fiscal exit and consolidation strategies should be well specified, duly communicated and implemented in a timely manner in order to maintain confidence in longer-term fiscal sustainability. The existing EU fiscal framework, as embedded in the relevant provisions of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, provides the appropriate coordination mechanism. In this respect, the precedent of coordinated fiscal expansions within the framework of the European Economic Recovery Plan calls for particular attention. To prevent the risk of an erosion of the EU fiscal framework, it is important that the provisions of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact are fully respected and implemented in a strict manner.

From the recent fiscal developments, the following lessons emerge for the implementation of the EU fiscal framework in post-crisis times. First, at the EU level, only high-quality information will enable an accurate assessment of the fiscal situation in individual countries [apropos budgetsvindlen i Grækenland, red.]. In this respect, the existing EU fiscal surveillance process – also with regard to the reliability of fiscal data – needs to be strengthened. Second, outside crisis times, market incentives are often not sufficiently strong to promote sound national fiscal policies. Moreover, the EU’s institutional incentives for ensuring fiscal discipline face a number of challenges. Therefore, at the national level, effective complementary institutions, binding medium-term fiscal policy frameworks as well as strong monitoring and enforcement mechanisms could be put in place to ensure fiscal discipline in both good and bad economic times. Overall, both at the EU level and the national level, a more powerful application and enforcement of the EU fiscal rules for sound and sustainable fiscal positions will be required".