Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending

Professor Alberto Alesina og professor Silvia Ardagna har lavet en omfattende analyse af lavere skat versus øgede offentllige udgifter til stimulering af den økonomiske aktivitet, som konkluderer, at skattelettelser er mere effektiv end øgede offentlige udgifter. Analysen blev omtalt af professor Greg Mankiv i sidste indlæg og kan læses her. Abstract:

"We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases. As for fiscal adjustments those based upon spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based upon tax increases. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions. We confirm these results with simple regression analysis".